PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents institutional-grade quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform arbitrage, and live edge signals.

• Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
• Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (Model Context Protocol registry)
• Docs / landing page: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp
• Manifest: server.json · also served at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/.well-known/mcp/server.json
• Type: Cloud service ☁️ · TypeScript 📇

This repo is the public home and documentation for the hosted server. The server is live — no install, no build. Point any MCP client at the endpoint above.

Tools

The free tier is a set of stateless quant calculators. Pro tools read PredictionMarketsPicks' live edge engines and require an API key.

Tool	Tier	What it does
calculate_ev	Free	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_size	Free	Optimal Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
bayes_update	Free	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence via Bayes' theorem; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
convert_probability	Free	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds (American odds carry no commas).
base_rate_gap	Free	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample-size quality.
combo_edge	Free	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, and a negative-correlation-trap flag.
find_arbitrage	Pro	Cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup).
market_pulse	Pro	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores.
commodity_edge	Pro	Largest model edge on a Kalshi weekly-silver or twice-daily bitcoin strike, as a trade ticket (side, price, criterion, edge, tier, ¼-Kelly).
scan_mispricings	Pro	Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model, with direction, edge in points, and quarter-Kelly sizing.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Connect

Claude Code

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

Claude.ai, ChatGPT, or Cursor — add a custom connector / MCP server with the URL:

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

The free calculators work with no key. Pro tools require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key — see https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp.

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles.

License

MIT — see LICENSE. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks; this repository covers the server's public interface and documentation.