MCP Predictive Market

<p align="center"> <h1 align="center">MCP Predictive Market</h1> <p align="center"> <strong>Query and analyze prediction markets through Claude</strong> </p> <p align="center"> <a href="https://github.com/EricGrill/mcp-predictive-market/blob/master/LICENSE"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/license-MIT-blue.svg" alt="MIT License"></a> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/tools-8-green.svg" alt="8 Tools"> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/platforms-5-purple.svg" alt="5 Platforms"> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/python-%3E%3D3.11-orange.svg" alt="Python >= 3.11"> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/tests-134%20passing-brightgreen.svg" alt="134 Tests"> </p> <p align="center"> <a href="#-quick-start">Quick Start</a> | <a href="#-available-tools">Tools</a> | <a href="#-supported-platforms">Platforms</a> | <a href="#%EF%B8%8F-configuration">Configuration</a> | <a href="https://github.com/EricGrill/agents-skills-plugins">Plugin Marketplace</a> </p> </p>

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What is this?

An MCP (Model Context Protocol) server that aggregates prediction market data from 5 major platforms. Search markets, compare odds, detect arbitrage opportunities, and track predictions through natural language.

Works with Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible client.

Part of the Claude Code Plugin Marketplace.

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Quick Start

# Clone and install
git clone https://github.com/EricGrill/mcp-predictive-market.git
cd mcp-predictive-market
uv sync

# Run the server
uv run python -m mcp_predictive_market.server

Add to your Claude config and start querying markets:

"Find prediction markets about AI regulation"

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Why Use This?

Feature	Description
Multi-Platform Search	Query 5 prediction markets simultaneously
Arbitrage Detection	Find price discrepancies across platforms
Market Tracking	Build watchlists and monitor odds changes
Platform Comparison	Side-by-side odds for similar questions
Unified Data Model	Consistent market schema across all platforms

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Available Tools

Search & Discovery

Tool	Description
search_markets	Search markets across all platforms by keyword
list_categories	Get available market categories
browse_category	Browse markets in a specific category

Market Data

Tool	Description
get_market_odds	Get current odds for a specific market
compare_platforms	Side-by-side comparison of similar markets

Tracking

Tool	Description
track_market	Add a market to your watchlist
get_tracked_markets	View all tracked markets with current prices

Analysis

Tool	Description
find_arbitrage	Detect price discrepancies between platforms

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Supported Platforms

Platform	URL	Specialization
Manifold Markets	manifold.markets	Play money, wide variety
Polymarket	polymarket.com	Crypto, high liquidity
Metaculus	metaculus.com	Science, long-term forecasts
PredictIt	predictit.org	US politics
Kalshi	kalshi.com	CFTC-regulated, real money

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Configuration

Claude Desktop Setup

Add to your Claude Desktop config:

Platform	Config Path
macOS	~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json
Windows	%APPDATA%\Claude\claude_desktop_config.json
Linux	~/.config/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "prediction-market": {
      "command": "uv",
      "args": ["run", "--directory", "/path/to/mcp-predictive-market", "python", "-m", "mcp_predictive_market.server"]
    }
  }
}

Claude Code Setup

Add to your project .mcp.json or ~/.config/claude-code/mcp.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "prediction-market": {
      "command": "uv",
      "args": ["run", "--directory", "/path/to/mcp-predictive-market", "python", "-m", "mcp_predictive_market.server"]
    }
  }
}

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Examples

<details> <summary><b>Search & Discovery</b></summary>

"Find prediction markets about AI"
"What categories of markets are available?"
"Show me crypto markets on Polymarket"
"Browse politics markets"

</details>

<details> <summary><b>Market Analysis</b></summary>

"Get current odds for Manifold market abc123"
"Compare odds for 'Will Bitcoin hit $100k?' across all platforms"
"Show me the probability of a 2024 recession on different platforms"

</details>

<details> <summary><b>Arbitrage Detection</b></summary>

"Find arbitrage opportunities with at least 10% spread"
"Are there any markets with significantly different odds across platforms?"
"Show me the biggest price discrepancies right now"

</details>

<details> <summary><b>Market Tracking</b></summary>

"Track the Polymarket election market"
"Show all my tracked markets"
"What are the current prices on my watchlist?"

</details>

---

Development

# Clone
git clone https://github.com/EricGrill/mcp-predictive-market.git
cd mcp-predictive-market

# Install with dev dependencies
uv sync --extra dev

# Run tests
uv run pytest -v

# Run specific test file
uv run pytest tests/test_integration.py -v

Project Structure

src/mcp_predictive_market/
├── server.py           # MCP server entry point
├── tools.py            # Tool handler implementations
├── schema.py           # Unified market data models
├── errors.py           # Custom exceptions
├── rate_limiter.py     # Per-platform rate limiting
├── adapters/           # Platform-specific adapters
│   ├── base.py         # Adapter protocol
│   ├── manifold.py
│   ├── polymarket.py
│   ├── metaculus.py
│   ├── predictit.py
│   └── kalshi.py
├── analysis/           # Market analysis modules
│   ├── matching.py     # Cross-platform market matching
│   └── arbitrage.py    # Arbitrage detection
└── state/              # State management
    └── memvid_client.py

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Troubleshooting

<details> <summary><b>No results from a platform</b></summary>

1. Platform API may be rate-limited - wait and retry
2. Check platform is online: visit the website directly
3. Some platforms filter certain market types

</details>

<details> <summary><b>Arbitrage opportunities not found</b></summary>

1. Lower the min_spread parameter (default is 5%)
2. Try broader search terms
3. Fewer opportunities exist in efficient markets

</details>

<details> <summary><b>Market not found</b></summary>

1. Verify the market ID format (varies by platform)
2. Ensure the market hasn't been resolved/closed
3. Check you're using the correct platform name

</details>

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Related Projects

• Claude Code Plugin Marketplace - Discover more MCP plugins
• MCP Proxmox Admin - Manage Proxmox VE through Claude
• MCP Memvid State Service - Persistent state for MCP servers

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Contributing

Contributions welcome!

1. Fork the repository
2. Create feature branch: git checkout -b feature/my-feature
3. Make changes and test: uv run pytest
4. Commit: git commit -m 'Add my feature'
5. Push: git push origin feature/my-feature
6. Open a Pull Request

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License

MIT